Lundi 19 février 2018
Régulation et environnement  12:0014:00
Salle R113, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
CREPIN AnneSophie : Inertia in risk ; improving economic models of catastrophes
Coauthors : NAEVDAL Eric
Résumé

We provide a new way to model endogenous catastrophic risk termed inertia risk, which accounts for dynamic lags between physical variables and the hazard rate—a characteristic which is often observed in real life problems. For example the stock of some particular species in an ecosystem might influence the level of stress (or resilience) in that system, which is a slowly changing variable compared to the species dynamics. When the level of stress passes a critical threshold the ecosystem undertakes a regime shift, a rapid, substantial and persistent change in the system. In such context the inertia hazard rate defines the risk that the system will shift in the next period of time, which depends on both variables. We show that the added realism in our risk model has intuitive appeal and significantly impacts optimal solutions. With inertia risk, the probability that a catastrophe will ever occur may span the entire interval [0, 1]. This as opposed to the standard approach where this probability is either zero or one. We also show how inertia risk may generate path dependency as the hazard rate depends on learning about how risk is distributed in state space. We illustrate the implications for policy in a simple model of climate change. The optimal solution with inertia depends on parameters, such as damage and discount rates in a qualitatively different way compared to the standard approach. Hence for problems with lagged effects, where inertia risk is a more realistic way to represent risk, using the standard models of catastrophic risk that discard these lagged effects could generate substantially flawed policy recommendations.
Mardi 20 février 2018
Economie appliquée  12:3013:30
Salle R201, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
VERHAGEN Annelore (Maastricht University) : Does Active Living affect school performance ?
Résumé

This paper investigates whether stimulating physical activity in everyday life affects primary school performance. We use data from the Active Living field experiment, which aims to increase active transportation and active play among 812 yearolds living in lowSES areas in the Netherlands. Differenceindifferences estimations reveal that while Active Living increases time spent on physical activity during school hours, it negatively affects school performance, especially among the worstperforming students. Our results suggest that although physical exercise may be beneficial for health, stimulating active play can have negative effects on educational outcomes.
PSI PSE  17:0018:00
Salle R113, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
ESTEVEZ BAULUZ Luis : From manufacturing to services : the impact of structural change on the value of housing
Mercredi 21 février 2018
Histoire économique  12:3014:00
Salle R201, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
VELDE François (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) : Lottery Loans in the Eighteenth
Jeudi 22 février 2018
Travail et économie publique  12:3013:45
Salle R109, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
ROSENBAUM Philip (Copenhagen Business School) : Does the Timing of the First Childbirth Matter ? New Approach on Danish Register Data
Vendredi 23 février 2018
Casual Friday  12:4513:45
Salle R201, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
SARDOSCHAU Sulin : Children of War : Violence and Health after the 2003 Iraq Invasion
