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Paris-Jourdan Sciences Économiques - UMR8545





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Accueil du site > Séminaires > Agenda du 3 au 6 avril 2018

Agenda du 3 au 6 avril 2018

Mardi 3 avril 2018

Economie appliquée | 12:30-13:30

Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
GODECHOT Olivier (Sciences Po) : The Great Separation. Job Polarization in Six (and more) Countries
With Feng Hou (Canada), Martin Hallsten (Sweden), Lasse Henriksen (Denmark), Are Hermansen (Norway), Naomi Kadoma (Japan), Max Thaning (Sweden), Nina Bandelj, Irene Boeckmann, István Boza, David Cort, Avent-Holt Dustin, Gergely Hajdu, Andrea Hense, Jiwook Jung, Aleksandra Kanjuo-Mr ?ela, Joseph King, Alena Krizkova, Zoltán Lippényi, Silvia Maja Melzer, Eunmi Mun, Andrew Penner, Trond Petersen, Andreja Poje, William Rainey, Mirna Safi, Donald Tomaskovic-Devey, Zaibu Tufail Résumé

Growing inequality comes also with growing separation between the top and the bottom. Analyses of social cohesion have documented this phenomenon mainly through the study of school and residential segregation. This increased separatism between majority group and minorities, or between upper classes and lower classes is therefore interpreted as a growing avoidance of deprived groups by privileged ones. However this process neglects a major sphere of social life where people spend most of their daily time : work. In this article, we study thanks to linked employer employee panel administrative database the evolution of the probability of working in the same establishment for groups defined along several socio-economic dimensions —wage, occupation, education, age, gender, migratory status— in six countries : Canada, Denmark, France, Japan, Norway, and Sweden (results from Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Slovenia, and South Korea are forthcoming). For wage fractile groups, we utilize traditional measures of exposure (and respectively of isolation) with the “drop one” rule. For other groups, whose size varies throughout the period, we propose a relative net exposure. We find that the most dramatic shift is the growing separation of the top 1% earners at work and the decline in the exposure of this group to the bottom 25% and vice versa. This trend is particularly pronounced for France, Denmark and Sweden. The growing separation at work of top and bottom earners surpasses that of migrant and non-migrant, or that of male and female workers. We don’t find a similar isolation of the bottom 25%. The latter generally increases its intertwining with mid quartiles. These results show that the assortative matching mechanisms invoked for explaining the growing job polarization between high paying and low paying firms (Card et al., 2013 ; Song et al., 2015) may only be present at the very top of the wage hierarchy. We explore some of the mechanisms driving this trend : it takes place much more between firms than within firms with multiple establishments. Financialization, global cities, decrease in firm and establishment size also partly account for this evolution. We then look at some of the consequences of growing separation at work on social cohesion. We find also that residential segregation is also growing, although slower than segregation at work, with top earners increasingly living in different municipalities than bottom and median earners. Work segregation and residential segregation are correlated. We show that the former contributes to the later. This renews are understanding of residential segregation which is not only due to individual reluctance to interact but also to socio-economic process structuring work and territories.

Trade | 14:30-16:00

Salle R1-13, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
KRAUTHEIM S. (U. Passau) : The International Organization of Production in the Regulatory Void PHERKENHOFF Philipp
Texte intégral [pdf]

Mercredi 4 avril 2018

Histoire économique | 12:30-14:00

Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
SOTURA Aurélie (PSE) : Spatial income inequalities in France : 1960-2014
Co-authors : BONNET Florian (PSE)
Résumé

Abstract : Is there convergence between and within French départements ? We shed new light on this question thanks to a new database on local distributions of income in France from 1960 to 2014. The main contribution of this paper is the creation of a database on French metropolitan départements income distribution, using around 4500 fiscal tabulations collected in the Archives of French Economic Ministry, a new demographic database by Bonnet(2018), and income distribution for France computed by Garbinti et al. (2016). With our database, we first show that, today, total inequality comes only from intra départements inequality (that is inequality within départements). This is the result of a beta-convergence that took place bewteen départments. Second, we do not find any impact of intra départements measures of inequality on départements income per capita growth.Third, we find that on the period 1960-2014, there has been a growing concentration of population, employment, and value added per départements, whereas income concentration has, if anything, stabilized. This comes partly from the relocation of retirees to non productive but attractive places.

Economie du développement | 16:30-18:00

Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
LANJOUW Peter (VU University, Amsterdam ) : The Distributional Consequences of Structural Transformation : The Experience of a North Indian Village over Six Decades
Co-authors : ELBERS Chris, VU Amsterdam
Résumé

The village of Palanpur in Uttar Pradesh, North India, has been the subject of close study by researchers since the late 1950s. Himanshu, Lanjouw and Stern (forthcoming) assemble detailed quantitative and qualitative data over the period 1957/8 to 2015 to document the village economy’s evolution over these six decades and to link this to developments occurring at the regional, as well as all-India level. The data reveal that Palanpur has transformed from a largely closed, small-holder, farming community into a highly diversified economy, where non-agricultural income now accounts for the bulk of village income. This process of structural transformation has followed clear stages, with agricultural intensification and productivity growth during the 1960s and 1970s preceding a subsequent shift into non-farm activities. The “Green Revolution” stage was associated, in Palanpur, with rising incomes, falling poverty and a decline in income inequality. This latter finding occurred as a result of land reforms that were introduced just prior to the first survey of Palanpur in 1957, and because of the progressive impact of the expansion of irrigation whereby previously rain-fed farming households were able to “catch up” to those initially able to achieve multiple crops per year on their irrigated land. The second, diversification, stage occurred as productivity gains in agriculture slowed while a growing population continued to exert pressure on per capita incomes. Villagers’ horizons expanded beyond the village as commuting to nearby towns and villages accelerated. Although most of the new jobs and economic activities were casual and only moderately remunerative, they were sufficient to maintain the trend of rising per capita incomes and falling poverty. However, income inequality in this second stage increased sharply. A further striking finding is that across the two stages of transformation, inter-generational income mobility appears to have fallen : fathers’ incomes during the diversification stage have become better predictors of their sons’ incomes than during the agricultural intensification stage. We enquire, on the basis of a stylized model of the Palanpur economy and its recent evolution, whether the distributional outcomes observed could plausibly also be occurring in other, similar, villages. If the Palanpur findings - of falling poverty and rising incomes being accompanied by sharply widening village-level inequality - were to be widely repeated, they could presage a deceleration and possibly even reversal of some of the encouraging trends of rising rural living standards in Uttar Pradesh and North India more generally.

Jeudi 5 avril 2018

Comportement | 11:00-12:00

Salle R2-21, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
PALMINTERI Stefano (Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) École Normale Supérieure (ENS) ) : State-dependent valuation and confirmation bias in experience-based decisions

Value-based decision-making is traditionally investigated with different experimental tools in behavioural economics and behavioural neurosciences. While behavioural economics mainly (but not exclusively) investigates one-shot decision problems, whose variables (gains, losses and probabilities) are explicitly described, behavioural neuroscience mainly (but not exclusively) investigates repeated decision problems, whose variables are implicitly learnt by trial-and-error (i.e., reinforcement).

In the first part of the talk, we will first introduce the simplest experimental paradigms and computational models used to investigated such experience-based decisions in behavioural neuroscience. Subsequently, we will present imaging data concerning the neural correlates of decision variables in such reinforcement learning contexts, with a particular focus on the difference between the neural dissociation between the neural systems encoding gains and losses.

In the second part of the talk, we will complexify the standard reinforcement learning algorithm by adding state-dependent valuation and confirmation bias. Model comparison, model simulations and behavioural data analyses demonstrate the presence of these computational processes in human experience-based decisions. Strikingly, we will present situations where these computational processes lead to suboptimal choices.

In the last part of my talk, I will present new unpublished data using a paradigm that investigates decision problems between risky and safe outcomes in a reinforcement learning context. Strikingly - and in direct contradiction to what could be expected from prospect theory - concerning experience-based decisions subjects are risk averse in both in the gain and the loss domains. To our knowledge, this result (replicated in four experiments) represents a new instance of the so-called experience-description gap. Model comparison and model simulations indicate that this effect is parsimoniously explained by assuming state-dependent valuation and confirmation bias.

Main references (free download here) :

Palminteri S, Justo D, Jauffret C, Pavlicek B, Dauta A, Delmaire C, Czernecki V, Karachi K, Capelle L, Durr A, Pessiglione M. Critical roles for anterior insula and dorsal striatum in punishment-based avoidance learning. Neuron (2012). Skortzova V, Palminteri S, Pessiglione M. Learning to minimize efforts versus maximizing rewards : computational principles and neural correlates. The Journal of Neuroscience (2014). Palminteri S, Khamassi M, Joffily M, Coricelli G. Contextual modulation of value signals in reward and punishment learning. Nature Communications (2015).

Lefebvre G, Lebreton M, Meyniel F, Bourgeois-Gironde S, Palminteri S. Behavioural and neural characterization of optimistic reinforcement learning. Nature Human Behaviour (2017).

Travail et économie publique | 12:30-13:30

Salle R1-09, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
DUPRAZ Yannick (University of Warwick) : Fatherless : The Long-Term Effects of Losing a Father in the U.S. Civil War
Co-author : FERRARA Andy

TOM | 12:30-13:30

Salle R2-20, Campus Jourdan , 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
HA-HUY Thai (Université de Cergy ) : A Not so Myopic Axiomatization of Discounting
Co-authors : DRUGEON Jean-Pierre
Résumé

« This article builds an axiomatization of inter-temporal trade-offs that makes an explicit account of the distant future and thus encompasses motives related to sustainability, transmission to offsprings and altruism. The focus is on separable representations and the approach is completed following a decision-theory index based approach that is applied to infinite dimension streams. This enlightens the limits of the commonly used flat tail intensity requesites for the evaluation of utility sequences : in this article, these are supersed and replaced by an axiomatic approach to optimal myopy degrees that in its turn precedes the determination of optimal discount. The overall approach is anchored on the new and explicit proof of a temporal decomposition of the preference orders between the distant future and the close future itself directly anchored on the determination of the optimal myopia degrees. The argument is shown to provide a novel understanding of temporal biases with the scope for a distant future bias when the finite dimensional gets influenced by the infinite dimensional. The reference to robust orders and pessimism-like axioms finally allows for determining tractable representations for the indexes. »

Macro | 15:45-17:00

Salle R1-09 Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris
DEL NEGRO Marco (NY Fed) : The conquest of Inflation credibility - Bayesian inference for probabilistic surveys
Résumé

We propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to the estimation of forecast densities in probabilistic surveys. We use it to study the evolution of the subjective forecast distribution for the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters over the past forty years, focusing especially on second moments. We show that the variance of aggregate forecast distribution fell substantially from the eighties to the nineties (the \conquest"), and fell again after the Fed announced its long term inflation goal. We also show that disagreement (heterogeneity in the mean forecasts) plays a minor role, but that heterogeneity in uncertainty is very large. The "conquest" amounted to convincing high-uncertainty forecasters that inflation is under control. We also find that only a fringe of forecasters place any significant probability of the possibility of a return to the seventies. The likelihood of deflation in the aftermath of the Great Recession was significant (almost ten percent for the average forecaster) but declined to one percent or less for most forecasters thereafter.

Vendredi 6 avril 2018

Economie et psychologie | 11:00-12:30

Salle S/1, Maison des Sciences Economiques (MSE) 112 Boulevard de l’Hôpital, 75013 Paris
LLORENTE-SAGUER Aniol (Queen Mary Univ.) : Runoff elections in the Lab
Résumé

We study experimentally the majority runoff system and compare its properties to these ones of plurality rule in the setup of divided majority. This comparison is motivated by the theoretical prediction that plurality tends to produce (weakly) higher coordination of votes on two parties, giving rise to Duverger’s Law equilibria. The experiment shows similar levels of coordination under both mechanisms, even when sincere voting is an equilibrium under runoff. Behaviour seems to be explained by limited understanding on the runoff system and by overweighting the likelihood of outright victory in the first round. We explore this hypothesis in additional treatments where the incentives to coordinate are minimized.

Casual Friday | 13:15-14:15

Salle R2-01, Campus Jourdan, 48 boulevard Jourdan, 75014 Paris MEHMOOD Sultan (Dial, IRD and Paris-Dauphine) : Judiciary’s Achilles Heel : Executive Control via Appointment Power